Progress over the last week appears to confirm that rates of new infections appear to have leveled off or peaked in Alabama and Florida and are coming down a bit. Alabama is coming down very slowly, with Florida coming down more quickly but having been higher at the top. I'm worried that now that things are finally improving school openings will push it right back up over the next few weeks.
If you need evidence that mask orders make a difference, it's right here. Tuscaloosa's mask order went into effect on July 5, and we started to flatten off within a week. Alabama's statewide mask order went into effect on July 15, and again within a week, the increasing rate had started flattening off.
The threshold for even small to moderate size indoor meetings with masks and distancing (like a classroom) is to be less than 10 on this scale